spare cycles

Floyd Landis stopped to give a talk at Google as part of his national book tour for Positively False. I couldn't get to this talk on account of no visitors allowed.

Saw this on Neil@Road:

According to a Belgium website, the three arbitrators are going to announce their verdict either later today or tomorrow. I’m a bit skeptical. In either case it’s crappy timing. Just when the world should be focusing on the Tour, the verdict will completely over shadow the day.

Indeed.

The Landis hearing switched gears from scientific pedantry to daytime soap opera. "Bomb" seems to be the word of choice for both Trust but Verify: "Hearing - Thursday, post bomb", CyclingNews: "LeMond drops 'bomb' on Landis hearing", VeloNews: "LeMond drops bombshell at Landis hearing". Back channel confessions, childhood sexual abuse, witness intimidation: who's going to get the movie rights to this one?

I'm hardly a Phonak fan, but I'm sad to see them go:

Andy Rihs Disbands Phonak Cycling Team

Two American hopes -- Tyler Hamilton and Floyd Landis -- have risen then crashed through the Phonak team, so perhaps it's best that Phonak go the way of many cycling teams and disband, but for the riders who only recently were celebrating a Tour de France win and two-year extensions on their contracts, it is another terrible blow.

As anticipated, the B sample results arrived today and confirmed the original A sample rumored results: exogenous testosterone and an 11:1 T/E ratio. Landis has now been fired from the Phonak team, and if previous cases are our guide, this will take quite awhile to reseolve itself.

Landis' Web site has been taken out again by traffic, but yesterday he had posted a personal message titled, "Keep the Faith," that pointed out that the A sample results showed "the T value returned has been determined to be in the normal range. The E value returned was LOW." Landis does not yet have a defense for the exogenous testosterone results, but he is going out on the attack against the UCI for their leaks.

Landis B sample result announced

It's all rumor mill still, as Landis has not yet divulged what his A-sample results were, but L'Equipe reported over the weekend that Landis' A sample showed signs of exogenous testosterone -- exogenous testosterone is derived from plants and looks different in a mass spectrometry test. Previous media attention and rumors focused on the testosterone/epitestosterone ratio -- speculating it to be 11:1 -- and Landis' current defense is focused on showing this ratio to be natural, but if it is true that Landis' sample showed exogenous testosterone, Landis might as well start serving his suspension ASAP.

This is all to fill the gap until we hear back on the B sample, but it seems that everyone is expecting the B sample to be the same.

Several thoughts before bed:

• At this point in time I'm more inclined to believe Landis than not, for the mere fact that it seems that the testosterone/epitestosterone test seems too easy for cyclists to circumvent (see this Malcolm Gladwell post (via)). This isn't to say I don't think Landis doesn't dope -- I withhold my judgement -- but if he did, I don't see this being the way he gets caught.

• I was fairly impressed with the Landis press conference, in that he didn't make a whole lot of excuses or outlandish explanations. Also, the not-lying-to-your-Mennonite-mother defense is much better than swearing-on-your-dead-dog's-grave defense.

• ESPN thought Tiger Woods' preparations for the British Open were more newsworthy than Landis' epic stage 17 win and relegated his overall win to the sidebar for a photo of Woods winning the British Open, but now the Landis scandal is worthy of full front-page-big-photo glory -- it must be a slow news day. I'm also annoyed by all the sports pundits who now seem to think this confirms cycling as the dirtiest sport, ignoring the fact that Barry Bonds continues to swing away for a record.

• Greg Lemond is also really annoying. We get it. You could have won a lot more Tour de Frances. Back in your day you didn't have to dope. You don't like Lance. Hinault cheated you (though, really, you think someone is going to give up his chance at a fifth Tour victory to help you out?). Now stop trying to bring down the entire sport.

Landis' A-sample after his remarkable Stage 17 ride tested positive for high levels of testosterone -- we now anxiously await the results of the B-sample. We're all hoping that the beer after Stage 16 wasn't Colorado's Rocky Mountain Oyster label (I'm full of bad jokes this morning).

It's the worst possible news for cycling following Operation Puerto and continues a long streak of scandals revolving around the Phonak team: Hamilton, Urweider, Perez, and Camenzind, as well as Guitierrez and Botero, who were named in Puerto. Personally, I'm shocked that one team can continue to allow so many high-profile doping cases to permeate it.

Update: Landis' interview with CNNSI denying the accusation

Fans watching on TV and on the Champs Elysses were treated to the sight of Viatcheslav Ekimov riding off the front of the peloton, waving and clapping. After that gesture, Ekimov announced that he will be retiring in September and will become a team director for Discovery. Ekimov is the old salt of the Tour, still finishing Tours at the age of 40(!). Ekimov's consistency in Tours is as astonishing: he's finished all 15 Tours he's raced in. If it weren't for his training crash last year he would likely be tying Joop Zoetemelk's record of 16. As recently as 2004 he won a silver medal in Athens and he's still a fearsome rider in the time-trial: in stage 19 he finished seventh and had the fastest time on the day until Zabriskie rolled through six seconds faster.

Hushovd gets another stage win as he edges out McEwen. It was fitting that Hushovd closed out this year's Tour after he surprised everyone by winning the prologue and donning the first yellow jersey for this Tour, a yellow jersey that ended up being worn by many riders: Hushovd, Hincapie, Boonen, Gonchar, Dessel, Pereiro, and Landis.

Floyd Landis has won in Paris today and I'm happy for American cycling. I never thought after seeing Floyd in yellow at the Tour of California that he would have such an affinity for it this season. With the exception of the Dauphine, Floyd was pretty much in the yellow jersey from the start of his season to it's Tour de France conclusion. He won both of the American Tours, Paris-Nice, and now, the hardest and biggest of them all, the Tour de France. There is no asterisk for this Tour -- it was too good of a race for that. I just hope Landis will come back next year with his super hip and win again so the press can speculate whether or not his hip replacement is performance-enhancing. Landis has had one of the best seasons for a Tour winner in recent memory, biased by the fact that Armstrong has for the past seven years raced with full focus on the Tour, often with no wins anywhere else. Landis gave us an entire season to cheer through, especially for the American fans that saw him win twice on American soil. I'm really looking forward to the next Tour of California -- the Landis effect should be amazing.

I never thought Landis would win. I thought he would crack because of his team, and he did, but then he delivered a stunning comeback that said, "I am an Army of One." I also never thought Pereiro would be on that stage, but like many of the other top five riders, he managed to occupy leap into the overall spot of an absent leader, in this case Alejandro Valverde.

Operation Puerto was the start of this Tour's story, then it was followed by the crashes of and abandons many of the remaining contenders -- Valverde, Julich, Mayo. With so much damage to the top of the field, the story of the Tour switched to the lieutenants that stepped forward: Sastre, Kloden, Dessel, Moreau, Zubeldia, Rogers, and finally Pereiro. If you look at the top five, and swap in the names of the riders for their expected team leader, you'll see a top five that looks a lot like what people expected before the Tour; the lieutenants and teams really rose to the challenge.

And then of course there was Landis, who despite defending the efforts of his team, built his lead entirely on efforts done by himself: two time trials and the long solo mountain stage. Landis contributed two stories of comeback to this year's Tour. At the first rest day, we learned of his 2005 comeback and future adversity as x-rays of Landis' hip flashed across our TV screens. Perhaps that bode well for Landis, as it now seems a necessary element of the American cyclist champion that he overcome major health obstacles to stand atop that podium in France, whether it be shotgun shots, cancer, or dead hips. Then came the other comeback, the one that followed a ten-minute collapse, where previously Landis had seemed invulnerable on any mountain.

The only surprise for me was the absense of Discovery, which may have fallen victim to one too many captains, but really just seemed not in the right condition to compete. Levi Leipheimer was also more off-form than expected, but showed a resiliency and determination that was fun to cheer on. The American cyclists didn't do as well as expected, especially in the time trial, but it only takes one atop that podium to hold the banner of American cycling high.

Now I'm looking forward to next year. We may get to see Tom Danielson race his first Tour -- we'll definitely get to see his second Vuelta soon enough. Who knows what team Landis will be on. Will George finally get his Paris-Roubaix? The second Tour of California -- I'll be there -- and the Tour de Georgia -- will I be there as well? American cycling has never been more fun to watch.

• VeloNews Stage 20 Summary
• CyclingNews Stage 20 Summary
• Graham Watson Stage 20 Photo Gallery

Prediction check: * Prediction: Robbie McEwen, though with so many sprinters out of the competition a breakaway has a good chance today. Not much sense in trying to pick a breakaway rider, so I'll stick with Robbie. * Actual: Hushovd first, McEwen second

Gonchar wins the stage, but Landis won what mattered. Floyd Landis will become the third American to win the Tour de France. America will be lucky enough to see the eighth straight year of Tour victories. It's a comeback that surpasses Lemond's. While Lemond also won a yellow jersey with an unexpected -- fastest ever -- time trial victory, Lemond didn't lose 10 minutes to fall from 1st to 11th, outrace the entire peloton the next day to claw his way back into third, and then race into first on the final time trial.

As unwanted as Landis' collapse was for him, the comeback got him a stage victory he probably never would have had and mucho 'panache' credit. What would have been a conservative, well-defended, but ultimately doping-overshadowed victory instead has become the most memorable Tour of this century.

There were other battles on the road today. Cunego put in an unexpectedly great time trial to defend the white jersey, Kloden clawed his way onto the podium while passing Evans on the road, Pereiro put in a strong 4th place finish to earn respect for his podium spot, and Sastre fell off the podium as he couldn't change the fact that he is a climber.

• CyclingNews Stage 19 Summary
• VeloNews Stage 19 Summary
• Graham Watson Stage 19 Gallery
• Bob Martin's Stage 19 by the Numbers
• Floyd Landis Stage 19 Interview
• Sergei Gonchar Stage 19 Interview
• Stuart O'Grady Stage 19 Diary
• Dave Zabriskie Stage 19 Diary

Prediction check: * My prediction: Zabriskie (though it will probably be Landis) * Actual: Gonchar, in a repeat of the first time trial, with Landis second and Zabriskie three minutes behind

T-Mobile has fired Jan Ullrich for failing to demonstrate his innocence. It is a bit of a reverse burden in that Ullrich has to prove the evidence against him false rather than the circumstantial evidence being shown to be true, but bags of blood with your name on it would seem to be failry easy to prove or disprove. Basso's lawyer has said that Basso may submit to DNA testing, though I've heard of no promises.

VeloNews: T-Mobile sacks Ullrich

FRANCK FIFE/AFP/Getty Images

Look! A QuickStep jersey crossing the line first! Tossato won on a day controlled by the breakaway, getting a win for QuickStep where Boonen could not. Fifteen riders got away and stayed away as Saunier Duval gave a half-hearted chase. With most of the sprint teams missing their big sprinters -- Boonen abandoned, Bennati crashed/abandoned, Freire did not start -- and with Lotto having Aerts in the breakaway, no one really had a reason to help out SD. The good news for Phonak is that Saunier Duval did try to chase as it meant that they wouldn't have to worry about Levi Leipheimer in the break. Even though Levi was 22 minutes down, Pereiro's yellow jersey has something to say about that. Levi still gained almost seven minutes in the GC, which moves him within striking distance of the top ten.

Gerolsteiner went for the win with Levi and Scholz in the break. Levi made the first attempt at going for the win, jumping off the front of the break and pedalling with Euskatel's Isasi, but they were eventually pulled back with 20k to go. Scholz then attacked and two riders jumped across to join him. That attack was successful, but Scholz seemed fairly spent in the final kilometers. Tossato and Moreni came around easily in the final sprint.

Zabriskie was in the break but ended up finishing by himself, 2:23 down. I hope that means that he intentionally dropped off to save some energy for tomorrow. I'm still picking him for the time trial, though I have a feeling that the week may have been too difficult for CSC as they vaulted Sastre up the standings. Landis is the better bet for the time trial, especially with Zabriskie having to go very early in the day and setting a benchmark for others to follow. But CSC has fought back after losing two leaders and a domestique, getting stage wins by Schleck and Voigt in week two, leading the team classification for a bit, and putting Sastre on the podium. It's a strong squad of six and I'd like to see them get another prize.

Prediction check: * My prediction: Breakaway.George Hincapie has been going into break after break with no results. I'll pick him, but I'm also wondering if Chris Horner finally has his legs back. McEwen should win the bunch sprint easily as all of his competitors are out. Freire abandoned today, Boonen and Bennati previously abandoned. * Actual: Popo was in the first break and Martinez in the second, but no sign of Hincapie. McEwen didn't even bother participating in the sprint.

Landis used 70 bottles of water yesterday and cyclingshots blogger Eric Reagan points out in the comments here, "[Landis] should just ride solo up at the front every stage and he'll get plenty of support." I agree -- the Phonak team car did an excellent job supporting Landis and deserves some of that prize money. Maybe get it a nice new set of rims. I apologize to the Phonak team car for my criticisms about the weakness of the Phonak team -- Team Car is certainly the ultimate lieutenant, even if it is a bit of a hanger on.

Best. Ride. Ever.

AP Photo/Alessandro Trovati

Floyd Landis at a dinner full of carbs and panache last night and hit the peloton hard out of the gates -- the Tour is his to win once more. What do you do when your team is weak and you lost ten minutes yesterday? You burn them up at the start of the race to jump free from the pack then ride solo across the entire stage, watching as the top ten contenders can't figure out what to do about it. With water bottle in hand, constantly pouring water over his head and back, Landis delivered the ride of the century, winning the stage, 5:42 ahead of Sastre, 7:08 ahead of Pereiro, jumping back on the podium, and positioning himself one time trial away from victory in Paris. Landis' quote at the end of the race talking to his wife, "I wanted six."

As Landis built up a lead of over nine minutes, the top ten continued to let Caisse do all the work, even as their team whittled down to only one rider in front of Oscar Pereiro. CSC and T-Mobile finally sent their riders to the front on the penultimate climb to do some serious chasing, but they still gave Landis 6:32 at the start of the final Joux Plane climb. Voigt and Vandevelde pulled off the CSC train and Schleck pulled through to launch Sastre. From there, it was absolute chaos as Sastre raced ahead, pulling back time on Landis, while Menchov, Kloden, Pereiro, and Evans yo-yo'd back and forth further back. Moreau and Cunego managed to jump ahead, but everyone else eventually fell behind Pereiro's wheel as the yellow jersey fought hard to stay in yellow.

This is the GC after today's stage. The Stage 19 time trial will be one for the ages: 1. Oscar Pereiro Caisse d'Epargne-Illes Balears 80:08:49 2. Carlos Sastre Team CSC 0:11 3. Floyd Landis Phonak 0:31 4. Andreas Kl�den T-Mobile 2:29 5. Cadel Evans Davitamon-Lotto 3:08 6. Denis Menchov Rabobank 4:14

* VeloNews Stage 17 summary * Cycling News Stage 17 summary * Graham Watson Stage 17 photo gallery * Bob Martin's Stage 17 by the numbers * Floyd Landis Stage 17 interview * Dave Zabriskie Stage 17 diary

Prediction check: * My prediction: It's going to be hard for a non-GC contender to win given the GC battle that will occur today. This is Discovery's last chance to go for a stage win so they'll be in a break up front. Landis needs to recover and claw back some of those ten minutes he lost. Sastre will jump but Kl�den's charge will be hard to hold off. I'm going to say Landis if he can descend that final peak like he stole something. * Actual: all of that happened, except Kloden's charge wasn't hard to hold off, and I never thought that Landis would get over seven minutes on the yellow jersey. Striking distance of the podium? Perhaps. On the podium, wow.

Like many, yesterday's stage 15 performance by Landis convinced me that Landis had this one sewn up despite my amazement that Landis was doing it with almost no team support. Thus, today's stage 16 meltdown was a surprise. But if I had just listened to myself four months ago to this day, I would have been more prepared:

Floyd Landis: "It's the team, stupid": in both the ToC and Paris-Nice, Phonak was very shakable. They pulled through in the end, but I saw plenty of Landis fighting others off on his lonesome in both victories. The Tour de France's many stages require strong team consistency. You can win with a weak team like Armstrong's first victory, but you have to be lucky enough to have most of the major competitors sitting out due to doping violations. Discovery has already shown they can beat Phonak up on Brasstown Bald in last year's Tour de Georgia and T-Mobile put a lot of cracks into Discovery in last year's Tour de France. Even if Landis gets a coveted yellow jersey, I would expect to see isolated on a future mountain stage watching his lead tick away.

Caisse has a strong team. T-Mobile has a strong team. CSC has a strong team even with all their losses. They're riding at the top of this Tour even though all of them lost their leader. Lotto, Rabobank, and Discovery didn't lose their leaders to scandal or injury, and those leaders are riding lower in the standings.

Phonak has been weak throughout this season and throughout this Tour. A strong can protect you when your weak, and, more importantly, strong teammates are strong riders that aren't riding against you. Landis tried to win this Tour on the strength of his own efforts, but finally imploded under the weight. Can't say that's surprising.

NOTE: this isn't bragging about my prognostication skills. I predicted early, I predicted often. I've made many predictions and changed my mind many times since this entry. I'm just pointing out that sometimes things are as surprising as we think, if we just stuck with our gut hunches.

Frank Schleck won the day and Landis probably won the Tour. Scheck's victory was earned by the hard work of his CSC team. CSC put three riders into a 24-man break and Zabriskie and Voigt pushed that break through rain and shine until it was whittled down to a select group at the base of Alpe d'Huez. Lampre also did a bit of work in that break and both Schleck and Cunego were launched on the final climb. Schleck and Cunego rode up together most of the way, but with 3k to go, Schleck attacked and put in the gap he needed to win, having enough time to zip up his jersey at the end. It's Schleck's first Tour de France and first Tour victory.

Landis finished in fourth and it looks like in all certainty he'll be wearing this yellow jersey in Paris. He took his yellow jersey back from Pereiro, who fought hard but lost out by 10 seconds. Landis never showed a second's weakness while all of his GC competitors did. Menchov couldn't hold Landis' wheel, not even with Rasmussen somehow bridging up to Menchov to help out. Evans couldn't hold on either and Sastre made a good effort, but was dropped further up the climb. Kloden was the only GC contender that stayed with Landis the whole way, but even when his T-Mobile teammate Mazzolini dropped back from the break, Kloden could never get a gap.

The breakway was a big factor in the finish as riders in the break dropped back on the Alpe d'Huez to help out their GC hopefuls. Voigt was first, putting in a big effort for Sastre not long after helping to launch Schleck -- Voigt may have done the biggest effort on the day. Merckx was next, as Landis jumped onto his wheel and shouted for him to go. Merckx was a caught a bit by surprise, but quickly jumped to the front and handed over a bottle. Mazzolini was last, coming back to pace Kloden.

The big abandon on the day was Tom Boonen, who leaves with some yellow jerseys but no stage win or green jerseys. Most would be happy with that sort of haul, but the Belgian press is probably letting him have it today.

• VeloNews Stage 15 Summary
• CyclingNews Stage 15 Summary
• Graham Watson Stage 15 Photo Gallery
• Bob Martin's Stage 15 by the Numbers
• Frank Schleck Stage 15 Interview
• Floyd Landis Stage 15 Interview
• Dave Zabriskie Stage 15 Diary
• Stuart O'Grady Stage 15 Diary
• Bobby Julich Stage 15 Diary

Prediction check: * My prediction: Azevedo * Actual: Azevedo, where did you finish? Somewhere way back (7+ minutes)

Riders often perform very different in the Alps than the Pyrenees, especially since their form can drastically change over the course of a race (see: Levi Leipheimer). I pulled the top 30 2004 time trial results for the Alpe d'Huez and started bolding the top 20 riders from this year's Tour. Originally I deleted the riders no longer present, but I found it striking how many riders are not racing this year, be it retirement (Armstrong), abandon (Brochard), or doping (just about everyone else). I also included their current GC differential so you can try and guess whether or not vaulting into yellow would be a reasonable goal for that rider based on past performance. Stage 15 won't be ridden like a time trial, but the Alpe d'Huez does have a tendancy to isolate riders.

Some notes: Landis' time is probably the most important here, but both he and Azevedo were riding for Armstrong. In fact, many of the riders were riding in support of their leader, though Kloden somehow rode for Ullrich and ended up higher in the GC. There are also several top 20 riders that didn't compete in this race: Cadel Evans, Denis Menchov, Yaroslav Popovych, Marcus Fothen, Franck Schleck, Cedric Dessel, and Patrik Sinkewitz.

I wouldn't make exact predictions based on this list, especially with Menchov missing, but I will say this: this Tour isn't over yet, though no one has appeared to be in Landis' league. Kloden and Sastre look to be within striking distance of Landis and I would also throw Menchov in there even though I don't have a time for him. Pereiro could also hold onto the yellow jersey for at least another day based on these results.

1. Lance Armstrong (USA), U.S. Postal Service, 39:41
2. Jan Ullrich (G), T-Mobile, 01:01
3. Andréas Kloden (G), T-Mobile, 01:41 (GC -3.58)
4. José Azevedo (P), U.S. Postal Service, 01:45 (GC -9.11)
5. Santos Gonzalez (Sp), Phonak, 02:11
6. Giuseppe Guerini (I), T-Mobile, 02:11
7. Vladimir Karpets (Rus), Illes Balears-Banesto, 02:15 (GC -8:36)
8. Ivan Basso (I), CSC, 02:23
9. David Moncoutie (F), Cofidis, 02:23
10. Carlos Sastre (Sp), CSC, 02:27 (GC -3:21)
11. Stephane Goubert (F), Ag2R Prevoyance, 02:33
12. José Enrique Gutierrez(Sp), Phonak, 03:04
13. Michael Rogers (Aus), Quick Step-Davitamon, 02:34 (GC -4:51)
14. Oscar Pereiro Sio (Sp), Phonak, 03:06 (GC leader)
15. Marcos Serrano (Sp), Liberty Seguros, 03:09
16. Georg Totschnig (A), Gerolsteiner, 03:15 (GC -8:16)
17. Sandy Casar (F), FDJeux.com, 03:19
18. Mikel Astarloza (Sp), Ag2R Prevoyance, 03:25
19. Juan Miguel Mercado (Sp), Quick Step-Davitamon, 03:25 (GC -5:02)
20. Christophe Moreau (F), Crédit Agricole, 03:25 (GC -5:13)
21. Floyd Landis (USA), U.S. Postal Service, 03:35 (GC -1:29)
22. Axel Merckx (B), Lotto-Domo, 03:40
23. Gilberto Simoni (I), Saeco, 03:40
24. Francisco Mancebo (Sp), Illes Balears-Banesto, 03:41
25. Sylvain Chavanel (F), Brioches La Boulangere, 03:43
26. Michele Scarponi (I), Domina Vacanze, 03:53
27. Pietro Caucchioli (I), Alessio-Bianchi, 03:58
28. Laurent Brochard (F), Ag2R Prevoyance, 04:03
29. Levi Leipheimer (USA), Rabobank, 04:06

JAVIER SORIANO/AFP/Getty Images

Fredrigo takes it as the long breakaway on the day was able to hold off a charging chase group of 32 ridres over the final climb and down into the finish. The French fans have to be happy: three stage wins so far this Tour. Fredrigo and Commesso were the only surviving riders of a six-man break that was hit hard by a crash earlier in the stage. Verbrugghe had trouble holding the line for the break through a gravel-strewn turn; Verbrugghe went over the guard rail, cutting himself badly and possibly breaking his leg, while, a couple riders behind, Canada lost control of his front wheel and went sliding and broke his collarbone. The most spectacular part of the crash came from Kessler, riding in back, who did his best to get around a crashing Canada and ended up flipping himself and his bike over the guard rail as well. Kessler amazingly got back on the bike, even with large bits of rock stuck in his helmet. With their riders reduced by half, the break still continued to hold off the peloton being led by Liquigas and Milram, and even as the break dropped Aerts on the final climb of the day, there simply wasn't enough concerted chase to bring them back.

Discovery made a go for the stage win near the end, with Popovych and Azevedo trying to help bridge a group of riders containing George Hincapie up to the lead break. There were attacks within that chase group that Discovery had trouble containing and ended up killing the chase of the lead. CSC's Christian Vandevelde tried to bridge it alone, but he was a couple seconds too short to catch Commesso and Fredrigo. Rabobank also made a go for the win. Boogerd initially appeared to be leading out Rasmussen for some KOM points, but Rasmussen wasn't on full form so Boogerd shifted into attack mode for the win, but wasn't able to get enough of a gap.

Phonak got what they wanted out of the yellow jersey giveaway. Caisse controlled the pace, and even they got a break as the sprint teams seemed a bit more interested in trying to bring back the break for a stage win, knowing that the Alps lie ahead.

Abandons: Simoni, Backstedt

• CyclingNews Stage 14 Summary
• VeloNews Stage 14 Summary
• Graham Watson Stage 14 Photo Gallery
• Fredrigo Stage 14 Interview
• Bob Martin's Stage 14 by the Numbers

Prediction check: * My prediction: Discovery didn't make any moves yesterday, tomorrow is a rest day, and Hincapie is far enough down that he could be in a break without Phonak or Caisse-I.B. caring -- Hincapie in a breakaway. * Actual: Discovery made a go for it, with Popovych and Azevedo trying to pull back the breakaway for Hincapie, but there was too much chaos in the chase and they ended up a few seconds too short.

Stage 12 and stage 13 have provided some surprising results. While a breakaway did have its chances on these flat stages, a breakaway victory was by no means guaranteed, and in the early week of the Tour the peloton showed that it was going to pull back each and every break in the final kilometers. What we saw in stages 12 and 13 was a breakaway that was guaranteed: the sprinter teams didn't come forward, and Phonak set a tempo that pulled back no time on the breaks.

Even more puzzling about these stages was that two strong riders whose GC hopes had been killed off by the Pyrenees were allowed to escape, and Landis/Phonak not only allowed the breakaways to succeed, but also turned non-threats into contenders by giving them huge amounts of time. Where any concerted effort could have easily made the gains more modest, Popovych, sitting dead in 23rd place, was allowed 4:45 to move him into 10th. Even more shocking was the twenty-eight minutes given to Pereiro, who is probably more shocked than anyone that he is sleeping in yellow. Oscar Pereiro has never been touted as a contender, but he has finished in the top ten and was 2005's Most Aggressive RiderL he managed to be in successful breakaways on stages 15, 16, and 18 -- he won stage 16. Pereiro rode for Landis in that 2005 Tour, so he should know

These are dangerous games that Phonak and the peloton are playing. It means that Phonak is tired and lazy, and there will be gifts to be had. Phonak may regret these gifts because they rejuvenate a rider and his team. Popo probably can't win the overall, but now Discovery has had a big morale boost and we might see some real GC action from them in the Alps: if Popo finds some Alps legs, he and Azevedo can attempt to volley into the top five by Alps end. Hincapie will also be remotivated -- I think he'll try to see if there are still some gifts to be had tomorrow in Stage 14. A stage win and a yellow jersey would allow Hincapie to walk away from this Tour with his head held high.

Phonak's gifts also project weakness. Granted, no one thinks Landis is weak, but many, including me, have be criticizing the strength of his team all year. Their weakness in this case has been intentional, and another aspect of that is they may have worsened their relationship with other teams (as Bobby Julich discusses in his diary): if a team doesn't protect the treasured yellow jersey when it would have been easy to do so, will it be easy for them to get help from teams in future stages when the actually want to protect the jersey?

Armstrong won seven Tours by eliminating his competitors with a big attack and making sure that they stayed down; they raced for second. Armstrong may have used the same jersey-giveaway strategy (e.g. 2005 Stage 9 to Jens Voigt), but never out of a position of obvious weakness, and never to such a strong rider.

Landis is now attempting to win a Tour by a different strategy, one that asks his teammates to give 50% on some days where Armstrong would have asked for 100% every day. Landis has chosen to conserve his team's strength as much as possible through this stressful, difficult, and hot second leg, so that they can show up as strong as possible for the third leg through the Alps. Landis' different strategy from Armstrong's makes sense, as everything about Landis, from his training to his personality is markedly different, but it's a strategy that we will have to wait and see until Paris to judge.

So, brilliantly executed fumble, or one gift too many?

FRANCK FIFE/AFP/Getty Images

Voigt! Whenever there's a break, you're likely to see Voigt, and today Voigt finally found the one that worked for him. He and Oscar Pereiro whittled the break down until it was just them. Voigt then went with 800m to go; Pereiro pulled it back. They sat and talked a bit, and then Voigt went again and was able to hold off Pereiro.

It was an ideal situation for a break, as Phonak was completely uninterested in chasing as were the sprint teams. It seems that everyone in the peloton is still too tired and will do some pessimal pacing with Alpe d'Huez and the rest of the Alps on their minds. The weather has been hot, the stages have been long, and the rest day isn't until Monday.

The big news is a transfer of yellow jersey to Oscar Pereiro. I don't know what the Vegas line was on Pereiro moving into the yellow jersey from 28 minutes back -- heck, the odds of a break getting a half an hour on the field was probably pretty slim. The appears to have been Landis' tactic, as he's been hinting at his desire to hand over the yellow jersey temporarily in order to take some pressure off of his team. Landis didn't want to use up his team before the Alps, especially since they were barely there for the Pyrenees. But Oscar Pereiro moving into yellow on a Stage 13 break? I don't think I saw that in anyone's predictions. (Photo by FRANCK FIFE/AFP/Getty Images)

The mountains return tomorrow. Oscar Pereiro will be handing over that yellow jersey again soon -- we're getting close to breaking the record for most yellow jersey changes. Pereiro can climb, but I can't see him defending well after riding in a break like that. Other riders that are way down should take note -- the peloton and leaders are going to allow long breaks (Hincapie, you there?).

• VeloNews Stage 13 Summary
• CyclingNews Stage 13 Summary
• Graham Watson Stage 13 Interview
• Bob Martin's Stage 13 by the Numbers
• Oscar Pereiro Stage 13 Interview
• Jens Voigt Stage 13 Interview
• Dave Zabriskie Stage 13 Diary
• Bobby Julich Stage 13 Diary

Prediction check: * My prediction: A breakaway. Hincapie from the dartboard. McEwen wins the bunch sprint. * Actual: A breakaway (not Hincapie), McEwen wins the bunch sprint.

One, two, three, four times the charm -- Popovych attacked four times from the break. Four times Ballan and Freire gave chase, but Popovych had too much power. Discovery may have lost two riders today -- Savoldelli and Noval -- but today they looked a bit more like the team they were expected to be as they finally have a rider in the top ten again. The strategy for Discovery seemed fairly clear -- send their 'GC' riders into the breaks and hope for a win. Hincapie was in the first, Popovych covered the next and was rewarded with a stage win and 4:25 in the overall, which netted him tenth place by two seconds.

Freire had a decent day as well, as the intermediate sprint and third place got him 26 points while McEwen only got 15.

It was a long hot day, 99 degrees with a road temp of 122. The stage was long, windy, and just after yesterday's queen stage. The riders were tired, Phonak didn't want to spend too much energy chasing on a day like this, and the sprinters are still recovering from yesterday's climbs. In otherwords, this was a day for a break, and Discovery played it well.

• Graham Watson Stage 12 Photo Gallery
• CyclingNews Stage 12 Summary
• VeloNews Stage 12 Summary
• Bob Martin's Stage 12 by the Numbers
• Team Discovery Stage 12 Comments (paceline registration req'd)
• Popovych Stage 12 Interview
• Dave Zabriskie Stage 12 Diary
• Dave Zabriskie Stage 12 Audio Diary
• Stuart O'Grady Stage 12 Diary

Prediction check: * A breakaway, probably someone French. I jokingly guessed Horner * Actual: The break succeeded, but Horner finished in 150, 2 minutes behind the peloton, clearly still suffering

Some times you need pre-race plan, sometimes you don't. Discovery, already on the ropes from a poor time trial showing, probably came in with a race plan, but they disintegrated well before execution. T-Mobile, vaulted into the top of everyone's mind after a strong time trial performance, came in with a plan and over executed: they went so hard on the penultimate climb that they couldn't hold onto their own pace -- a mistake they made last year as well. Gerolsteiner, which had all the pieces for a plan -- three riders in the lead on the penultimate climb -- no longer had a leader to call the plan into play. Rabobank, which seemed more concerned with helping Rasmussen pick up third-place KOM points, suddenly came together on the penultimate climb and decided, hey, our leader Menchov is strong, let's give it a go.

Boogerd and Rasmussen were the uber domestiques, the true stage winners on the day. Rasmussen, previously criticized for being too selfish, sacrificed himself pulling Menchov and the rest of the lead pack to the final Pla da Beret climb. Granted, he did get beat by Voeckler going for some KOM points, so Rasmussen may not have had full chicken-leg power today, but he had more than enough power to give over the Menchov. Boogerd then put in the super effort on the Pla da Beret, an effort that reminded me of Landis' super pulls for Armstrong. Boogerd created the final selection, and then was able to finish in a descent position himself... all of this after helping lead out Rasmussen for his KOM points earlier in the day.

Menchov did his job as leader -- he took the setup, and then delivered the final punch. Landis was stronger, but Menchov was the better sprinter, and Levi just couldn't time it right. In a game of what-if, Levi might have been in the same position had he not had a disasterous time trial. Menchov had two teammates going over the penultimate climb, but so did Levi: Totschnig and Fothen. Instead of riding for Levi, though, Totschnig seemed to be protecting their rider in the best young rider jersey, guiding him along. Levi was no longer in a position to ask for a sadistic effort from them, and he essentially rode alone.

Landis also rode alone, but it didn't matter. He had delivered in the time trial, all he needed to do today was defend and pad. He had no riders to send to the front to set the tempo, so he sat on the T-Mobile train instead. When the T-Mobile train ran out of gas, he sat on the Rabobank train. And when the Rabobank train was just Menchov, Landis lead the train himself.

The race is far from over, as the five-minute gaps that were made today could easily become five-minute deficits in the Alps, but no rider has looked nearly as strong as Landis. As predicted, Landis' team is nowhere to be found, but it's going to take a lot more than an imploding Discovery and an exploding T-Mobile to take him down. Cadel Evans' Lotto seems to have no riders to throw at Landis in the mountains, as Chris Horner went backwards today, and CSC only has six riders left, though the Sastre/Schleck combination could definitely net a stage win. Rabobank could enact a plan -- they didn't have one before, but perhaps they'll have one now. Denis Menchov looks to have his podium spot sealed up, they just have to fight for the top seat.

Well, a day with five hard climbs will sort out the standings, won't it? Menchov takes the stage win on a day that Rabobank controlled the end, but it's Floyd Landis that takes the yellow jersey. Menchov and Landis are the clear leaders now; Kloden, Evans, and Sastre are close, but they will have to look towards the Alps to prove themselves better than they were today. If Landis continues to ride the way he did today, without any teammates to really help him, then he should be in yellow in Paris. It won't be an easy defense as Menchov's Rabobank showed themselves to be a strong mountain threat. T-Mobile hasn't given up yet either, though all their bets are riding on Kloden now. One team that won't give Landis any trouble is Discovery. I picked them as the strongest team going into this Tour, and let me say I couldn't have been more entirely wrong. They haven't controlled a second of this race and certainly weren't ready for today's attacks.

Leipheimer hung in there with Landis and Menchov, hoping that his loss of contender status would allow him to escape for the win, but Menchov kept nailing back his attacks. It didn't seem like it was going to be a Rabobank day: T-Mobile did the initial damage on the penultimate Col du Portilon climb, dropping all of Discovery except Azevedo as well as Caisse rider Vladimir Karpets; however, T-Mobile did the most damage to itself, knocking all of their highly placed riders out of contention, except Kloden, who they pushed into cramping. Rabobank seemed more concerned with helping Rasmussen get some KOM points, as Boogerd led out Rasmussen twice to collect points. On the lead-in to the final climb, though, Rasmussen moved to the front of the surviving 18 riders and set a pace that kept the peloton from closing down the gap. Then on the final climb it was Boogerd who shattered the rest of the group, shedding Azevedo, Fothen, Parra, Schleck, Simoni, Moreau, and Zubeldia. With a final push he popped off Kloden.

Menchov, Landis, Leipheimer, Evans, and Sastre were the only riders to survive Boogerd's final acceleration. Leipheimer made several attacks, but wasn't going to be allowed to get the win by Menchov. Landis did the majority of the work, with Menchov and Evans doing a bit of pacing as well. An attack by Levi and counterattacks by Menchov and Landis were enough to drop Sastre and Evans. Menchov timed his final sprint perfectly, coming around the final corner ahead and holding off Levi and Landis. From there it was a race to see if Dessel could pull a Voeckler and stay in the yellow jersey. Dessel needed to limit the time gap to about four and a half minutes, but was eight seconds too slow in the end -- the difference was Landis' twelve-second time bonus.

David de la Fuente deserves a big mention as he and Fabian Wegmann duked it out for KOM points early in the day. de la Fuente won that battle and was able to stay away until the final climb.

• VeloNews Stage 11 Summary
• CyclingNews Stage 11 Summary
• Graham Watson Stage 11 Photo Gallery
• Floyd Landis Stage 11 Interview
• Bob Martin's Stage 11 by the Numbers
• Bobby Julich Stage 11 Diary
• Levi Leipheimer Stage 11 Video Diary
• Stuart O'Grady Stage 11 Diary
• Christian Vandevelde Stage 11 Diary
• Bruyneel and Demol Stage 11 Interview (paceline registration req'd)

Prediction check:

• Prediction: First I picked Sastre and then swapped for Rasmussen, with Floyd in yellow.
• Actual: Rasmussen was nowhere close as he sacrificed himself for Menchov, who took the stage win. Sastre got dropped near the very top and came in fifth.

The reaction to Floyd Landis' mid-Tour annoucement of his dead hip seems to be mixed between awe and questioning Floyd's timing? Is this superhero Floyd unmasking his secret powers, i.e. Super Floyd? Or is Floyd preparing for a fall? Or is he preparing the Floyd Mythos in advance of joining the ranks of Greg Lemond (shotgun shot to back) and Lance Armstrong (cancer) that is required of American cyclists that win the Tour?

There would probably be less opinionating if Landis' stated reason did ring so false, which was that he wanted to get the information out there before it came out in other ways -- his hip didn't die yesterday. The worst-spirited speculation states that Phonak is just pre-excusing Landis prior to any poor performance in the mountains. I don't think it's Landis' intention to suck in the mountains, so that reasoning doesn't hold much water with me, even if Floyd does end up sucking in the mountain.

What rings more true with me are two reasons:

• Screwing with his opponents
• Raising awareness of his Floyd Landis Foundation while the spotlight is bright on the Tour.

Can you just imagine Floyd pulling along side another rider on a climb, taking his bad leg out of the pedal, and saying, "Look: I'm beating you with one leg."

The litlte psychological messing-with-their-heads scenario works for me because of this 2006 Paris-Nice anecdote from Landis' Outside Magazine interview:

The crux moment arrived in Stage 6, on the way to Cannes. Halfway into the race, a group of 19 broke away, and none of the other teams were willing to help Phonak chase them down. With the gap widening and the race becoming dangerously unstable, Landis decided to send a message.

At the base of a climb, he ordered his team to the front and told them to go full throttle. They blasted for three, five, ten minutes, and when everyone behind was gasping and hurting, Landis turned to address the peloton.

"You want more of that, motherfuckers?" he asked loudly. "Because if you do, we've got plenty."

The race went smoothly the rest of the way. After it ended, I asked Chechu Rubiera, a former teammate of Landis at U.S. Postal, if Floyd had reminded him of anyone in particular at that moment. Rubiera just smiled.

Super Floyd Photo by Eric Reagan, http://cyclingshots.blogspot.com

Mercado takes a stage win over Dessel on a long break of attrition. What was originally a 13-man break became a battle between Mercado and Dessel as the two managed to drop the rest of the break going over the massive Col du Soudet. Five riders caught back on in the runup to the Col du Marie Blanc, but Mercado and Dessel dropped them once more and held onto the finish. As they approached the line, Dessel had already secured his new KOM and yellow jerseys, but he wanted it all -- overall, mountain, and stage. Mercado asked Dessel to let him have the win, Dessel said no, so Mercado decided to sit on Dessel's wheel in the final kilometers. Dessel still made it a go in the final sprint and was just barely beat to the line. The smartest move they made on the day was probably not allowing Landaluze to join their break. Landaluze managed to get within ten seconds of latching onto their break, but they pushed away from him and kept the spoils to themselves. Dessel is now the fifth rider to wear yellow this Tour in just ten stages, and I'm betting on that jersey passing to someone else's shoulders tomorrow. (Photo by FRANCK FIFE/AFP/Getty Images)

Bennati took the field sprint just over Zabel for some more points in the green jersey competition. Bennati also made it into the break earlier in the day and took an intermediate sprint for more points.

The mountains are finally here, but this wasn't a stage designed to be decisive in the overall competition. The long run-in to the finish meant that none of the overall contenders were going to waste too much energy attacking, and tomorrow's very difficult stage means that everyone wants to save as much energy as possible. The result was a breakaway that the peloton barely gave chase to -- it held about a ten minute lead nearly the whole day that was only pulled back to seven-and-a-half minutes by day's end. T-Mobile set tempo most of the day but probably didn't want to given their seven-man status, and we may have seen some of the effect of the departure of the Tour boss, Lance Armstrong: there's no clear leader or favorite in the peloton anymore, so every team is doing its best to pretend that it doesn't have to do work, that it doesn't have a clear leader. Hopefully this will sort itself out tomorrow, or else the breakaways will have a huge advantage in the mountains.

Seventy-three riders made the selection in the main peloton, which doesn't whittle things down too much. Cunego and Levi had been dropped but reintegrated, as was Simoni, but Simoni had a flat tire to blame Zabriskie barely held on, but he's probably working for Sastre. The only real surprise was how bad Mayo did -- he's not really an overall favorite anymore, but now it's doubtful that he'll even do well in the mountain stages to come. Mayo was dropped early and finished with the likes of McEwen.

• VeloNews Stage 10 Summary
• CyclingNews Stage 10 Summary
• Bobby Julich Stage 10 Diary
• Dessel Stage 10 Interview
• Mercado Stage 10 Interview
• Stuart O'Grady Stage 10 Diary
• Bob Martin Stage 10 by the Numbers
• Graham Watson Stage 10 Gallery

Prediction check: * My prediction: Sprinters win, Freire first, Zabel second, Hincapie third, Gonchar still in yellow * Actual: Minus the breakaway, I might have actually done quite well :). Zabel finished second in the field sprint behind Bennati, but with the breakaway this put Zabel in 9th place. Gonchar lost the yellow to Dessel. Freire made the first selection over to the Col du Soudet but got dropped on the Col du Marie Blanc.